sepИзвестия высших учебных заведений. Социология. Экономика. ПолитикаProceedings of Higher Educational Institutions. Sociology. Economics. Politics1993-18243033-8158Тюменский индустриальный университет10.31660/1993-1824-2022-4-67-88sep-74Research ArticleСтатьиСравнительный анализ взаимосвязи риска терроризма и ограничений оппозиции на национальных выборахA comparative analysis of the relationship between the risk of terrorism and the restrictions of the opposition in national electionsНовиковА. В.NovikovA. V.

Андрей Вадимович Новиков

кафедра математических методов в экономике

Москва

Andrey V. Novikov

Department of Mathematical Methods in Economics

Moscow

Российский экономический университет им. Г. В. ПлехановаРоссияPlekhanov Russian University of EconomicsRussian Federation2022050520251546788Copyright © Новиков А.В., 20252025Новиков А.В.Novikov A.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://sep.tyuiu.ru/jour/article/view/74

   В статье рассматривается проблема сравнительного анализа взаимосвязи между ростом терроризма и существующими ограничениями для оппозиции на национальных выборах. Отдельно изучается влияние видов политических режимов, ограниченных и неограниченных типов выборов, а также различных показателей стабильности государств и их социально-экономического развития. В исследовании используется анализ описательной статистики и разрабатываются семь отрицательных биноминальных регрессионных моделей, охватывающих выборы в более чем 150 странах в период с 1970 по 2015 годы. В результате было доказано, что проведение правительством неограниченных выборов связано с увеличением уровня террористического насилия в недемократических странах, но со снижением уровня терроризма в демократических. При этом ограничение участия оппозиционных групп в выборах связано со снижением уровня террористического насилия в недемократиях, но с увеличением уровня терроризма в демократиях. В целом полученные выводы свидетельствуют о достаточно сильной и значимой взаимосвязи типов национальных выборов и риска возникновения терроризма в странах с разными политическими режимами.

   The article considers the issue of a comparative analysis of the relationship between the rise of terrorism and the existing restrictions on the opposition in national elections. It gives an analysis of the influence of the types of political regimes, limited and unrestricted types of elections, as well as various indicators of the stability of states and their socio-economic development. The author of the article uses descriptive statistics analysis and develops seven negative binomial regression models that take into account choices in more than 150 countries between 1970 and 2015. The result proves that the government's holding of unrestricted elections is associated with an increase in terrorist violence in non-democratic countries, but with a decrease in terrorism in democratic ones. At the same time, restricting the participation of opposition groups in elections is associated with a decrease in the level of terrorist violence in non-democracies, but with an increase in the level of terrorism in democracies. In general, the data obtained indicate a strong and significant relationship between the types of national elections and the risk of terrorism in countries with different political regimes.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.